A day ago has known the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States of America where Argentina appeal against the judge’s ruling Griesa New York is rejected and ordered to pay “immediately” U$ 1,300 million a vulture fund NML.
Beyond all the analyzes that could be done about the sorry role of political opponents (actually opportunists) who went out to “support“ the ruling, and the extreme right press is happy, a serious problem arises for the future economies of nation-states.
1 – If this decision becomes final, the possibilities fall sovereign restructuring in the medium and long-term debt, including the debt of Europe and, most likely, the United States of America, for the precedent that will be set a sufficient 1% for the remaining 99% lose their rights to demand that those who do not enter the swap.
2 – If this happens, and the sovereign debt payments can be decided at the offices of a judge, no use of economic and foreign policies of the governments of the respective States, as sufficient that a person‘s divine right to arrogate decide that a republic must pay a 1% to 92% with priority, to which you can prevent charging and sentencing him to a “technical default”.
3 - He was more than clear on the process followed by before the New York court that NML never was harmed by the Argentine government, but the fund took advantage of the need for the bondholders who sold off their roles for this group to litigate against a republic and profit of over 400%. In short, both Griesa as the U.S. Supreme Court have validated a scam made by those who have no financial need against those who were actually defrauded by the Argentine government. So for the U.S. “justice” not interested NML bought these bonds in 2008, three years after the Argentine government had exchanged more than 85% of its defaulted debt for new bonds. Speculation has been validated and has been caught up with the economic policy of a sovereign state.
4 - Pay to the terms set by the judge Griesa would violate the rights of the 92% who entered the trade voluntarily, and generate - this is the worst thing - the right to execute that 92% of the Argentine State to be paid 100% and in one payment. Needless to say that the absolute inability to pay is just around the corner.
5 - The Secret of the strategy, in my humble opinion, is to January 2015 and attempt to generate a new negotiation with these funds, which - like it or not - now have a decision of justice from the main power world. Why that date? You can not pay any creditor in more advantageous conditions than those who enter the swap, because they would entitle them to sue in the same conditions the Argentine State. That clause expires in December.
Finally, I was greatly surprised that the adjective lofty economists, journalists and politicians said about the handling of the debt by the Argentine government, “improvisation.”
I’m not official, I’m hyper critical of his foreign policy, but if there is one area where this government deserves recognition, it is precisely in management that had national public debt.
Hopefully prime wisdom and sanity in government and opposition leaders, and instead of petty calculations consider a strategy to avoid the “greater evil“, not only for Argentina, but rather over much of Europe and … on Washington.