Elections 2016: Scioli not reaches 40% and still the prospect of runoff
A national survey attributed 38.3% of the vote by projecting undecided. With a slight increase in the last month, Macri would reach 29.2% and 20% Massa.
Despite the intense election campaign of the ruling party, Daniel Scioli still unable to take off in the polls: according to a national survey by the consulting firm Management & Fit, the presidential candidate of the Frente para la Victoria currently has 34.3% of the vote, with the projection of undecided, it would stretch to 38.3%. If confirmed the poll, governor of Buenos Aires would not achieve winning the first round and would ballot.
Other survey data that will surely worry the command comes Scioli campaign. It is also, Scioli could be losing some of the votes obtained in the primaries. FPV candidate got 38.67% of the vote, according to the official count. The sample of M & F indicates that now would reap the Buenosairean 0.37% fewer votes than those which added 69 days ago.
They agree on something that most opinion polls in M&F appears as the second Mauricio Macri. The candidate of Cambiemos has a voting intention of 25.1%, without undecided, growing at 29.2%. In his case he would also be losing some of the votes that garnered front Cambiemos in the August primary. This time, when competed Macri, Ernesto Sanz and Elisa Carrio to see which of the three was left with the presidential candidacy, the force had obtained 30.12% of positive votes, according to the scrutiny of the National Electoral Board.
Consolidated third in voting preference appears, Sergio Massa. The candidate of the Alliance for a “Unidos para Nueva Argentina” (UNA) has according to the survey of M&F voting intention of 17.1% with the projection of undecided up to 21% (in primary had taken the 20.57%) .
Pretty further behind the other three presidential candidates appear. Margarita Stolbizer, candidate for the “Progresista” party, has 3.9% of the vote, which would rise to 4.8% (3.47% obtained in the primary).
In the fifth Nicolas Cano, the young candidate of the “Frente de Izquierda” appears, with voting intentions of 2.3% (2.9% excluding undecided. In primary had garnered 3.25%. And in sixth place “Compromiso Federal” headed Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, with 1.8% of voting intentions (2% without undecided).
To prevail in the first round, the floor needs to overcome Scioli 40% of the votes and get 10% lead over its rivals. According to the survey it is that this would not happen, and therefore had runoff on Sunday 22 November. Happened to the locals would be the sixth choice in a space of just seven months.
The M&F survey was conducted between 8 and 13 October. It was made through telephone and personal 2,400 interviews in all provinces. Its margin of error is 2%.
Another fact that emerges from the research by the consultancy is to enter the previous national survey He closed in mid-September-and this, Scioli would have dropped a few tenths in voting intentions. At that time, a survey by M&F showed that the candidate chosen by Cristina Kirchner to succeed it had 38.6% of the vote against 38.3% for now.